What We Learned from the 2013 Gold Cup...

1.      Canadian football is not competitive. A second consecutive first round exit in the Gold Cup combined with poor showings in the last several World Cup qualifying tournaments show that Canada cannot compete in Concacaf. They need to change their strategy and hope that the Canadian MLS and NASL teams can develop enough talent to make the competitive. They also need to ensure that players don’t opt to represent other countries instead of the Reds.

 

2.      Caribbean nations dominate politics, not on the pitch. While the Caribbean block may hold enough power to determine elections in the region, on the pitch they continue to lag behind North and Central America. Two did teams made it out of pool play (Cuba beat Belize, so they don’t get as much credit). While that is better than some previous years, the Caribbean teams get eliminated early from most competitions.  

3.      Even playing at half speed, the US can win. Donovan back on the team gave a moral boost to the US. The US “B” team played ok and showed a few moments of good football. Overall, we didn’t see anything special. Even without playing their best, the US won the Gold Cup and with it half a ticket to the Confederations Cup in Russia.

4.      A team, that is not even a country, can make life hell for “Big teams”. Martinique is not a member of FIFA. Heck, they are not even a country! While they can draw from French players with Martinican descent, it is crazy to think they cannot only beat teams like Canada, but also play strong games against Mexico.

5.      Honduras cannot delivery results when it needs it the most. Third semifinal exit in the last 3 tournaments. Will they ever make it past this stage? Not in the near future. Their players need to develop mentally before they can achieve bigger things.

6.      Panama is a force in Concacaf It is no surprise to have Panama in the Hexagonal. They had a good start and still have a good chance to qualify. This tournament represents the second time they have made it to the final. Third time is a charm?

7.      Mexico is no longer the big dog. Remember when Mexico beat Martinique 9-0 in 1993? Remember when playing in the Azteca mean a guaranteed lost for any team? Those days are gone. Two defeats to Panama and a semifinals exit shows how low Mexican football has fallen. While it is too soon to prescribe their doom, teams no longer fear Mexico and fear was their number one ally in the past.  

 

Canada Does Not Deserve a Gold Cup Spot

Canada has an automatic place in the Gold Cup  and this is ridiculous.

They have participated in all but one edition (they withdrew in 1998). From the 11 tournament appearances they have, they have not made it past the group stage in 7 occasions. They are generally the first to go home with some of the smaller Carribean nations.

To be fair, Canada has had some success in the tournament. They are the lone champion in the region outside the US and Mexico. Their 2002 and 2007 semifinal appearances are decent for a hockey crazy nation.

In order to provide a more competitive the tournament, Concacaf should implement one of the following changes:

Option 1: Canada, the fifth country in Central America and the fifth country in the Caribbean should play a pretournament qualification to determine the two remaining qualifiers

• Pros: Add excitement before the tournament and give the Caribbean a chance to prove itself
• Cons: It's likely that the games would not be very exciting and Canada and the Central American country would still qualify

Option 2: Reduce the number of teams from 12 to 9 and make the tournament more competitive. Only the winner of each group and the best 3rd place would qualify.

• Pros: Reduce mediocrity of having a 5th place team in Central America qualify. Make the Central American Cup and the Caribbean Cup more meaningful and make Canada prove themselves. Eliminate ridiculous games like Cuba vs Belize
• Cons: Reduces the opportunities of teams to gain experience in major tournaments and the amount of money raised.

Either way, Canada is getting an easy pass that is not based on merit.

Concacaf Gold Cup Semifinal Review

Concacaf Gold Cup Semifinal Review

For the second edition in a row the same four teams met in the Concacaf Gold Cup Semifinals. Four years ago Mexico eliminated Honduras and the US dismissed Panama. This time around there was a different combination of Central America vs North America. The results were also a breath of fresh air to a tournament that had become a little too predictable.

The Gold Cup is a tournament that is blatantly designed to allow Mexico and the US to meet each other in the final. Every edition the groups and the knockout stage are set up so the teams will only play each other if one of them fails miserably in the first round and ends up third place. Even then, a match between them in the quarter of semifinals is not guaranteed. Financially, I understand why Concacaf does it. Having the two regional powerhouses fight in front of sold out crowds every year adds significant money to the confederation's coffers. From a footballing perspective, it makes the tournament appear fixed.

Nevertheless we have seen a great surprise this year. Panama's football is growing. They are a force within the region. Making it to the hexagonal was no mistake. They lead the Hexagonal for a bit and, while they are now in fifth place, I wouldn’t discount their chances just yet. Gone are the days in which they were considered a joke. Panama is the only team to play in the championship game outside Mexico and the US since 2003.  Seeing Panama beat the US to claim continental glory is not out of the question.

Mexico, on the other side, is in decline. They are no longer the unbeatable team. Their form in this tournament, the Confederations Cup and the Hexagonal is alarming. Their place in the World Cup is not guaranteed. Ironically, if Mexico makes it to the World Cup, they will probably fair better than any other Concacaf team due to their experience in bigger games.

Honduras… ah Honduras… Always competing, but never been able to fully delivery the results their fans would expect. They didn’t show up to the game. The coach made some questionable decisions (leaving Mario Martinez and Marvin Chavez) on the bench. This is the third edition in a row that they are eliminated in this phase of the tournament. They need to step up and not give into pressure if they want to succeed.


The US didn’t  break a sweat to make it to the final. After losing the last two tournaments they are hungry for glory. Retaking the regional crown is a must. Landon Donovan has proven he is still a fundamental piece of the national team. While their next game will be hard, they are still the favorites to win.


Prediction: USA 2 – Panama 1

¿África (CAF), Asia (AFC) o Concacaf? ¿Qué Confederación es mejor?

Europa y América del Sur dominan la Copa Mundial cada cuatro año. Los otros países parecen contentos en tener una participación decorosa o simplemente calificación.

África recibe 5 puestos, Asia 4.5 y Concacaf 3.5. Siempre hay una discusión de cual continente es el más fuerte y que merece más reconocimiento.

Si analizamos la actuación de cada confederación en la era moderna (Copa del Mundo de 1990), vamos a ver los resultados por confederación . Para simplificar el ejercicio, supongamos que una victoria (incluso en 1990) vale 3 puntos. Contando solamente la fase de grupos, estos son los porcentajes de puntos ganados por cada confederación en los últimos seis Copa Mundiales.

 

CAF = 32%, AFC = 26%, Concacaf = 36%

Cabe destacar que la Concacaf fue sede en 1994, AFC en 2002 (dos naciones anfitrionas) y la CAF en 2010 (Sudáfrica no hace más allá de la primera ronda).

 

El análisis no tiene en cuenta victorias / pérdidas en los octavos de final, ya que afectaría negativamente a los equipos que se clasificaron y no pasaron más allá de la primera ronda. Es importante, además, tener en cuenta el porcentaje de equipos que se han clasificado para la segunda ronda por cada confederación. Al comparar el porcentaje de equipos por confederación que lograron el cuarto juego, la Concacaf supera también a las otras regiones:

 

 

CAF = 27%, AFC = 25%, Concacaf = 57%

África ha producido dos equipos en cuartos de final (1990 y 2002) y la CONCACAF uno (2002). Asia produjo un semifinalista en el 2002.

Aunque más equipos de África han llegado a las últimas etapas del torneo, en promedio, las naciones Concacaf han hecho mejor que sus homólogos africanos y asiáticos. México y los EE.UU. han proporcionado consistentemente buenos resultados, pero países como Costa Rica también han ayudado a la media. ¿Qué confederación es mejor? La matemática dice que la Concacaf es el líder entre estos tres.

Africa (CAF), Asia (AFC) or North America (Concacaf)? Which Confederation is better?

Europe and South America dominate the World Cup every four years. The other countries seem to content to having a decent run or just qualifying.

Africa gets 5 spots, Asia 4.5 and Concacaf 3.5. There is always an argument on which continent is the strongest and who deserves more recognition.

If we analyze each confederations performance since the modern era (1990 World Cup), we will see how each of the Confederations stacks against each other. For simplicity, let’s assume that a win (even in 1990) was worth 3 points. Counting group stage alone, here is the percentage of points won per confederation over the last six WCs.

CAF = 32%, AFC = 26%, Concacaf = 36%

It is worth noting that Concacaf hosted the WC in 1994, AFC in 2002 (two host nations) and CAF in 2010 (South Africa did not make it past the first round).

The analysis does not consider wins/loss in the knockout stages because that would negatively affect teams that qualified and didn’t make it pass the first round. It is important, however, to consider the percentage of teams that have qualified to the second round per confederation. When comparing the percentage of teams per confederation that made it past the first round, we see a slight difference:

CAF = 27%, AFC = 25%, Concacaf = 57%

Africa has produced two quarterfinalists (1990 and 2002) and Concacaf one (2002). Asia produced a semifinalist is 2002.

While more teams from Africa have made it to the later stages of the tournament, on average, the Concacaf nations have done better than their African and Asian counterparts. Mexico and the US have consistently provided good results but countries like Costa Rica have also helped the average. So which confederation is better? Math would say, that Concacaf is the leader among these three.

Gold Cup 2013 Analysis: Group C

Gold Cup 2013 Analysis: Group C

USA, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba

The Favorites: USA. The USA is the absolute favorite to win the weakest of the Gold Cup. The US will take their B Squad to this event. Landon Donovan is back in the fold for the tournament and will be ready to fight back for his spot back in the US squad.

The Contenders: Costa Rica can push the US and top the group. They have been in fine form during the WC qualifiers and are also favorites to win the Gold Cup. While several of their stars are out, expect them to go far in the tournament.

The Outsiders: Belize and Cuba will fight it out for third place. Belize has made history by just qualifying to the tournament. Their lack of experience might hurt their efforts. The defector issue might haunt Cuba. Either way, neither team will likely make it far in the tournament.

Predictions: USA will finish on top with Costa Rica in making a strong push but will fall short. Cuba and Belize are happy just to make it to the Gold Cup and will be on the first plane back after their last game.

Gold Cup 2013 Analysis: Group B

Gold Cup 2013 Analysis: Group B

Honduras, El Salvador, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago

The Favorites: Honduras

The Contenders: El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago both had disappointing early exits in the World Cup qualifiers. T&T was in shock when they bowed out to Bermuda in a series that not even the most optimists would have rooted for them. El Salvador wanted to repeat it's 2010 run but came short when facing Mexico and Costa Rica.

The Outsiders: In its 5^th Gold Cup, Haiti has been somewhat of a regular participant. With a decent showing in the Caribbean Cup, Haiti is the dark horse of group B. Don’t discount their chances of making it past the first round. If they do, they won’t make it further then their quarterfinal record in 2002 and 2009.

Predictions: Honduras will win the group but will have some issues along the way. T&T will pay back its fan for a disappointed early WC exit and will finish second due to goal difference. El Salvador will book the third place ticket and make it to the next round. Haiti will continue the Caribbean tradition of first round exits.