Thursday, January 2, 2014

In Depth Concacaf FIFA Ranking Analysis Through the Years




The monthly FIFA ranking is a good thermometer of what is taking place in the world of football. While the ranking methodology has had its critics over the years, it serves as the best proxy on how teams compare to each other. 

Concacaf (the soccer federation covering North America, Central America and the Caribbean) has 35 FIFA associated federations and 6 other teams that are members of Concacaf only. These six members participate in regional competitions but not World Cup Qualifiers or are part of the FIFA ranking.

We have expanded a study done by another blog several years ago (see link here: http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/2006/09/fifa-rankings-concacafs-best.html) and see how the different teams in the region have done over the years.

Mexico and the US dominate the top 2 positions. Between them they have been in first or second place all throughout the FIFA ranking history except for July 2009 when Costa Rica occupied the number two position for one month. Here is the breakdown on the top 2 positions:


First Place Ranking
Second Place Ranking
Mexico
189
40
USA
43
191
Costa Rica
0
1

While Mexico has clearly been the dominant force, the US has seen tremendous growth in the past decade. Thirty six of the US’s forty-three first place finishes have been in the last five years. They are no longer playing second fiddle to their neighbors down south.

Top 3

When considering the teams who have been consistently in the top three spots in Concacaf, the field continues to grow. USA and Mexico are omnipresent. As expected, Costa Rica is in third place with a decent advantage over Honduras. Panama’s football pedigree has been growing by leaps in bounds and all their third place finishes have occurred in the last two years. A total of nine teams have been in the top 3.

Country
Top 3 Finish
USA
232
Mexico
232
Costa Rica
73
Honduras
62
Jamaica
42
Trinidad and Tobago
29
Panama
16
Cuba
4
Canada
3
El Salvador
2
Haiti
2

Top 5

The list grows by one (Guatemala) when we look at top five finishes. Nations like Guatemala and El Salvador are underperformers. Guatemala has now missed the Gold Cup twice after being eliminated by Belize and Nicaragua. The Caribbean nations of Jamaica, T&T, Cuba and Haiti benefit from playing regular FIFA sanctioned competitions like the Caribbean Cup against the minnows of the region. To be fair, the first two have successfully qualified to the World Cup since the Hexagonal came into existence. 

Honduras surpasses Costa Rica in this category by a good margin. The Ticos have had some rough spots through the years that have seen them drop significantly in the rankings.
Concacaf continues to be top heavy with the nations below being the only ones that can really compete against each other. Even within these nations, there is a gulf of class between the top tier nations and the bottom of the list.

Country
Top 5 Finish
USA
232
Mexico
232
Honduras
185
Costa Rica
164
Jamaica
132
Trinidad and Tobago
85
Canada
56
Panama
51
Cuba
9
Haiti
7
El Salvador
6
Guatemala
3

 Top 10

To finish off, we have the countries that cracked the top 10. While the Top 10 in Concacaf is not a great feat in the soccer community, it is a massive ordeal for some of these smaller nations. Twenty-two out of the regions members (62%) have made it to the list. The “Big Four” have been in it every time (even though CR and HON both flirted with 10th place more than once). Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica and Canada have also been very consistent in this group.

All the nations that have been part of the Top 5 have been dominant in the Top 10. The drop-off between them and the other nations is significant (100 Top 10 appearances vs 20). Some less than usual suspects start appearing on this list. Most of these appearances are the result of good runs in the Caribbean Cup and the early stages of the World Cup Qualifying. Guatemala and El Salvador have pathetic percentages over barely over 50%.

Country
Top 10 Finish
USA
232
Mexico
232
Honduras
232
Costa Rica
232
Trinidad and Tobago
228
Jamaica
224
Canada
221
Cuba
176
Guatemala
130
El Salvador
123
Haiti
107
Panama
100
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
20
Bermuda
20
Suriname
15
Puerto Rico
7
Barbados
6
Dominican Republic
4
Grenada
4
Guyana
3
Antigua and Barbuda
3
St. Lucia
1