In Depth Concacaf FIFA Ranking Analysis Through the Years

The monthly FIFA ranking is a good thermometer of what is taking place in the world of football. While the ranking methodology has had its critics over the years, it serves as the best proxy on how teams compare to each other. 

Concacaf (the soccer federation covering North America, Central America and the Caribbean) has 35 FIFA associated federations and 6 other teams that are members of Concacaf only. These six members participate in regional competitions but not World Cup Qualifiers or are part of the FIFA ranking.

We have expanded a study done by another blog several years ago (see link here: http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/2006/09/fifa-rankings-concacafs-best.html) and see how the different teams in the region have done over the years.

Mexico and the US dominate the top 2 positions. Between them they have been in first or second place all throughout the FIFA ranking history except for July 2009 when Costa Rica occupied the number two position for one month. Here is the breakdown on the top 2 positions:

	First Place Ranking	Second Place Ranking
Mexico	189	40
USA	43	191
Costa Rica	0	1

While Mexico has clearly been the dominant force, the US has seen tremendous growth in the past decade. Thirty six of the US’s forty-three first place finishes have been in the last five years. They are no longer playing second fiddle to their neighbors down south.

Top 3

When considering the teams who have been consistently in the top three spots in Concacaf, the field continues to grow. USA and Mexico are omnipresent. As expected, Costa Rica is in third place with a decent advantage over Honduras. Panama’s football pedigree has been growing by leaps in bounds and all their third place finishes have occurred in the last two years. A total of nine teams have been in the top 3.

Country	Top 3 Finish
USA	232
Mexico	232
Costa Rica	73
Honduras	62
Jamaica	42
Trinidad and Tobago	29
Panama	16
Cuba	4
Canada	3
El Salvador	2
Haiti	2

Top 5

The list grows by one (Guatemala) when we look at top five finishes. Nations like Guatemala and El Salvador are underperformers. Guatemala has now missed the Gold Cup twice after being eliminated by Belize and Nicaragua. The Caribbean nations of Jamaica, T&T, Cuba and Haiti benefit from playing regular FIFA sanctioned competitions like the Caribbean Cup against the minnows of the region. To be fair, the first two have successfully qualified to the World Cup since the Hexagonal came into existence. 

Honduras surpasses Costa Rica in this category by a good margin. The Ticos have had some rough spots through the years that have seen them drop significantly in the rankings.

Concacaf continues to be top heavy with the nations below being the only ones that can really compete against each other. Even within these nations, there is a gulf of class between the top tier nations and the bottom of the list.

Country	Top 5 Finish
USA	232
Mexico	232
Honduras	185
Costa Rica	164
Jamaica	132
Trinidad and Tobago	85
Canada	56
Panama	51
Cuba	9
Haiti	7
El Salvador	6
Guatemala	3

 Top 10

To finish off, we have the countries that cracked the top 10. While the Top 10 in Concacaf is not a great feat in the soccer community, it is a massive ordeal for some of these smaller nations. Twenty-two out of the regions members (62%) have made it to the list. The “Big Four” have been in it every time (even though CR and HON both flirted with 10^th place more than once). Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica and Canada have also been very consistent in this group.

All the nations that have been part of the Top 5 have been dominant in the Top 10. The drop-off between them and the other nations is significant (100 Top 10 appearances vs 20). Some less than usual suspects start appearing on this list. Most of these appearances are the result of good runs in the Caribbean Cup and the early stages of the World Cup Qualifying. Guatemala and El Salvador have pathetic percentages over barely over 50%.

Country	Top 10 Finish
USA	232
Mexico	232
Honduras	232
Costa Rica	232
Trinidad and Tobago	228
Jamaica	224
Canada	221
Cuba	176
Guatemala	130
El Salvador	123
Haiti	107
Panama	100
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	20
Bermuda	20
Suriname	15
Puerto Rico	7
Barbados	6
Dominican Republic	4
Grenada	4
Guyana	3
Antigua and Barbuda	3
St. Lucia	1

Concacaf FIFA Rankings through the Years

Even though a lot of people believe the FIFA ranking system is complicated and does not accurately represent reality, it is still interesting to see how teams fare in the rankings.

Honduras has had its up and downs through the years (#20 in September 2001 and #95 in November 98). On average, they still sit in the 50s. I am not making a judgment whether the 50s are good or bad, but this is the reality.

July 2013	55
June 2013	52
May 2013	50
April 2013	52
March 2013	49
February 2013	51
January 2013	59
2012	58
2011	53
2010	59
2009	37
2008	40
2007	53
2006	56
2005	41
2004	59
2003	49
2002	40
2001	27
2000	46
1999	69
1998	91
1997	73
1996	45
1995	49
1994	53
1993	40
Average	52

Mexico and the US have a clear superiority. They are generally in the Top 20 worldwide. Costa Rica has a better rating than their Central American counterparts, but not as much as its record in the qualifiers or the Central American Cups. Other countries are much lower than these four. Panama is still recovering from years of bad performances so their average is low.

	Best Position	Worst Position	Average
Mexico	Feb 1998 - 4	Jul 2009 - 33	14
USA	Apr 2006 - 4	Aug 2012 - 36	19
Costa Rica	May 2003 - 17	Jul 1996 - 93	50
Honduras	Sep 2001 - 20	Nov 1998 - 95	52
Jamaica	Aug 1998 - 27	Oct 2008 - 116	58
Trinidad y Tobago	Jun 2001 - 25	Oct 2010 - 106	64
Guatemala	Ago 2006 - 50	Nov 1995 - 163	91
El Salvador	Apr 2012 - 49	Nov 2006 - 169	93
Panama	Apr 2013 - 38	Oct 1995 - 150	99

  
See the ranking through the years since the FIFA ranking was introduced.