In Depth Concacaf FIFA Ranking Analysis Through the Years

The monthly FIFA ranking is a good thermometer of what is taking place in the world of football. While the ranking methodology has had its critics over the years, it serves as the best proxy on how teams compare to each other. 

Concacaf (the soccer federation covering North America, Central America and the Caribbean) has 35 FIFA associated federations and 6 other teams that are members of Concacaf only. These six members participate in regional competitions but not World Cup Qualifiers or are part of the FIFA ranking.

We have expanded a study done by another blog several years ago (see link here: http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/2006/09/fifa-rankings-concacafs-best.html) and see how the different teams in the region have done over the years.

Mexico and the US dominate the top 2 positions. Between them they have been in first or second place all throughout the FIFA ranking history except for July 2009 when Costa Rica occupied the number two position for one month. Here is the breakdown on the top 2 positions:

	First Place Ranking	Second Place Ranking
Mexico	189	40
USA	43	191
Costa Rica	0	1

While Mexico has clearly been the dominant force, the US has seen tremendous growth in the past decade. Thirty six of the US’s forty-three first place finishes have been in the last five years. They are no longer playing second fiddle to their neighbors down south.

Top 3

When considering the teams who have been consistently in the top three spots in Concacaf, the field continues to grow. USA and Mexico are omnipresent. As expected, Costa Rica is in third place with a decent advantage over Honduras. Panama’s football pedigree has been growing by leaps in bounds and all their third place finishes have occurred in the last two years. A total of nine teams have been in the top 3.

Country	Top 3 Finish
USA	232
Mexico	232
Costa Rica	73
Honduras	62
Jamaica	42
Trinidad and Tobago	29
Panama	16
Cuba	4
Canada	3
El Salvador	2
Haiti	2

Top 5

The list grows by one (Guatemala) when we look at top five finishes. Nations like Guatemala and El Salvador are underperformers. Guatemala has now missed the Gold Cup twice after being eliminated by Belize and Nicaragua. The Caribbean nations of Jamaica, T&T, Cuba and Haiti benefit from playing regular FIFA sanctioned competitions like the Caribbean Cup against the minnows of the region. To be fair, the first two have successfully qualified to the World Cup since the Hexagonal came into existence. 

Honduras surpasses Costa Rica in this category by a good margin. The Ticos have had some rough spots through the years that have seen them drop significantly in the rankings.

Concacaf continues to be top heavy with the nations below being the only ones that can really compete against each other. Even within these nations, there is a gulf of class between the top tier nations and the bottom of the list.

Country	Top 5 Finish
USA	232
Mexico	232
Honduras	185
Costa Rica	164
Jamaica	132
Trinidad and Tobago	85
Canada	56
Panama	51
Cuba	9
Haiti	7
El Salvador	6
Guatemala	3

 Top 10

To finish off, we have the countries that cracked the top 10. While the Top 10 in Concacaf is not a great feat in the soccer community, it is a massive ordeal for some of these smaller nations. Twenty-two out of the regions members (62%) have made it to the list. The “Big Four” have been in it every time (even though CR and HON both flirted with 10^th place more than once). Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica and Canada have also been very consistent in this group.

All the nations that have been part of the Top 5 have been dominant in the Top 10. The drop-off between them and the other nations is significant (100 Top 10 appearances vs 20). Some less than usual suspects start appearing on this list. Most of these appearances are the result of good runs in the Caribbean Cup and the early stages of the World Cup Qualifying. Guatemala and El Salvador have pathetic percentages over barely over 50%.

Country	Top 10 Finish
USA	232
Mexico	232
Honduras	232
Costa Rica	232
Trinidad and Tobago	228
Jamaica	224
Canada	221
Cuba	176
Guatemala	130
El Salvador	123
Haiti	107
Panama	100
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	20
Bermuda	20
Suriname	15
Puerto Rico	7
Barbados	6
Dominican Republic	4
Grenada	4
Guyana	3
Antigua and Barbuda	3
St. Lucia	1

Who is the King of African Football?

Who rules in Africa? The same five teams who qualified to the 2014 World Cup are the same five who played for the 2010 in South Africa. Are these five the dominant nations? They are definitely a strong group, but have they always been as dominant?

Using the FIFA World Ranking system we examine which nations in African football are dominating We can definitely see swings through the last 20 years. Nations have had strong runs (Togo in 2006, Tunisia 1998-2002) and others rose and fell quickly. While there are other great nations not listed in this review, we selected the top nations that have some World Cup presence since 1990.

If we look at the past 20 years, Libya has had tremendous growth in football power. The best African countries have remained in the top 50. South Africa had a strong showing in the mid 90’s but has failed to deliver consistent results for a nature of its size and power.  

If we look at the specific numbers, Egypt rules over the last two decades. Ironically the team has not qualified to the World Cup since 1990. Their strong performances in the African Nation Cups have kept their average strong. Cameroon is close behind. In the next year they are likely to surpass the Pharaohs. Nigeria has the distinction of having the highest ranking ever (5).

Team	Highest	Lowest	Average Ranking
Egypt	Jul 2010 - 9	Mar 2013 - 75	32
Cameroon	Nov 2006 - 11	Mar 2013 - 79	33
Côte d'Ivoire	Feb 2013 - 12	May 2004 - 75	35
Nigeria	Apr 1994 - 5	Nov 1999 - 82	37
Tunisia	Feb 1998 - 19	Jul 2010 - 65	37
Morocco	Apr 1998 - 10	Sep 2010 - 95	40
Ghana	Feb 2008 - 14	Jun 2004 - 89	42
South Africa	Aug 1996 - 16	Aug 1993 - 109	49
Senegal	Jun 2004 - 26	Jun 2013 - 99	58
Algeria	Nov 2012 - 19	Jun 2008 - 103	60
Togo	Aug 2006 - 46	Jul 2011 - 123	82
Libya	Sep 2012 - 36	Jul 1997 - 187	108

How about the last six years?

The last six years, tell us a different story. While Egypt still makes it to the top three (mainly because of their African Nation’s Cup Success), they do not longer dominate. Cameroon falls two spots to number four. South Africa looks even worst and Togo takes the undesirable honor of last place. The usual suspects rise to the top and the occasional World Cup participants do not fare as well.  

Ivory Coast and Ghana are the top two nations. They have delighted us with great football over the years. Without Luis Suarez’s handball, we might have seen the first African Nation in the semifinals. 

In 2014, Drogba and Co are looking at finally making the splash that is expected from them.

	Highest Year	Lowest Year	Average Ranking
Côte d'Ivoire	15	26	21
Ghana	21	34	26
Egypt	11	59	34
Nigeria	27	57	36
Cameroon	16	63	39
Algeria	31	81	45
Tunisia	46	55	51
Morocco	42	76	63
Senegal	45	81	66
South Africa	47	76	67
Libya	49	97	75
Togo	74	106	84

So who is the king in Africa? Egypt and Ivory Coast take the honor for now. After 2014, we expect to see Ivory Coast take the single honor and dominate both the historical numbers as well as the recent past. The Pharaohs might not want to see their continental rivals succeed in Brazil.