Canada Does Not Deserve a Gold Cup Spot

Canada has an automatic place in the Gold Cup  and this is ridiculous.

They have participated in all but one edition (they withdrew in 1998). From the 11 tournament appearances they have, they have not made it past the group stage in 7 occasions. They are generally the first to go home with some of the smaller Carribean nations.

To be fair, Canada has had some success in the tournament. They are the lone champion in the region outside the US and Mexico. Their 2002 and 2007 semifinal appearances are decent for a hockey crazy nation.

In order to provide a more competitive the tournament, Concacaf should implement one of the following changes:

Option 1: Canada, the fifth country in Central America and the fifth country in the Caribbean should play a pretournament qualification to determine the two remaining qualifiers

• Pros: Add excitement before the tournament and give the Caribbean a chance to prove itself
• Cons: It's likely that the games would not be very exciting and Canada and the Central American country would still qualify

Option 2: Reduce the number of teams from 12 to 9 and make the tournament more competitive. Only the winner of each group and the best 3rd place would qualify.

• Pros: Reduce mediocrity of having a 5th place team in Central America qualify. Make the Central American Cup and the Caribbean Cup more meaningful and make Canada prove themselves. Eliminate ridiculous games like Cuba vs Belize
• Cons: Reduces the opportunities of teams to gain experience in major tournaments and the amount of money raised.

Either way, Canada is getting an easy pass that is not based on merit.

Concacaf Gold Cup Semifinal Review

Concacaf Gold Cup Semifinal Review

For the second edition in a row the same four teams met in the Concacaf Gold Cup Semifinals. Four years ago Mexico eliminated Honduras and the US dismissed Panama. This time around there was a different combination of Central America vs North America. The results were also a breath of fresh air to a tournament that had become a little too predictable.

The Gold Cup is a tournament that is blatantly designed to allow Mexico and the US to meet each other in the final. Every edition the groups and the knockout stage are set up so the teams will only play each other if one of them fails miserably in the first round and ends up third place. Even then, a match between them in the quarter of semifinals is not guaranteed. Financially, I understand why Concacaf does it. Having the two regional powerhouses fight in front of sold out crowds every year adds significant money to the confederation's coffers. From a footballing perspective, it makes the tournament appear fixed.

Nevertheless we have seen a great surprise this year. Panama's football is growing. They are a force within the region. Making it to the hexagonal was no mistake. They lead the Hexagonal for a bit and, while they are now in fifth place, I wouldn’t discount their chances just yet. Gone are the days in which they were considered a joke. Panama is the only team to play in the championship game outside Mexico and the US since 2003.  Seeing Panama beat the US to claim continental glory is not out of the question.

Mexico, on the other side, is in decline. They are no longer the unbeatable team. Their form in this tournament, the Confederations Cup and the Hexagonal is alarming. Their place in the World Cup is not guaranteed. Ironically, if Mexico makes it to the World Cup, they will probably fair better than any other Concacaf team due to their experience in bigger games.

Honduras… ah Honduras… Always competing, but never been able to fully delivery the results their fans would expect. They didn’t show up to the game. The coach made some questionable decisions (leaving Mario Martinez and Marvin Chavez) on the bench. This is the third edition in a row that they are eliminated in this phase of the tournament. They need to step up and not give into pressure if they want to succeed.


The US didn’t  break a sweat to make it to the final. After losing the last two tournaments they are hungry for glory. Retaking the regional crown is a must. Landon Donovan has proven he is still a fundamental piece of the national team. While their next game will be hard, they are still the favorites to win.


Prediction: USA 2 – Panama 1

¿África (CAF), Asia (AFC) o Concacaf? ¿Qué Confederación es mejor?

Europa y América del Sur dominan la Copa Mundial cada cuatro año. Los otros países parecen contentos en tener una participación decorosa o simplemente calificación.

África recibe 5 puestos, Asia 4.5 y Concacaf 3.5. Siempre hay una discusión de cual continente es el más fuerte y que merece más reconocimiento.

Si analizamos la actuación de cada confederación en la era moderna (Copa del Mundo de 1990), vamos a ver los resultados por confederación . Para simplificar el ejercicio, supongamos que una victoria (incluso en 1990) vale 3 puntos. Contando solamente la fase de grupos, estos son los porcentajes de puntos ganados por cada confederación en los últimos seis Copa Mundiales.

 

CAF = 32%, AFC = 26%, Concacaf = 36%

Cabe destacar que la Concacaf fue sede en 1994, AFC en 2002 (dos naciones anfitrionas) y la CAF en 2010 (Sudáfrica no hace más allá de la primera ronda).

 

El análisis no tiene en cuenta victorias / pérdidas en los octavos de final, ya que afectaría negativamente a los equipos que se clasificaron y no pasaron más allá de la primera ronda. Es importante, además, tener en cuenta el porcentaje de equipos que se han clasificado para la segunda ronda por cada confederación. Al comparar el porcentaje de equipos por confederación que lograron el cuarto juego, la Concacaf supera también a las otras regiones:

 

 

CAF = 27%, AFC = 25%, Concacaf = 57%

África ha producido dos equipos en cuartos de final (1990 y 2002) y la CONCACAF uno (2002). Asia produjo un semifinalista en el 2002.

Aunque más equipos de África han llegado a las últimas etapas del torneo, en promedio, las naciones Concacaf han hecho mejor que sus homólogos africanos y asiáticos. México y los EE.UU. han proporcionado consistentemente buenos resultados, pero países como Costa Rica también han ayudado a la media. ¿Qué confederación es mejor? La matemática dice que la Concacaf es el líder entre estos tres.

Africa (CAF), Asia (AFC) or North America (Concacaf)? Which Confederation is better?

Europe and South America dominate the World Cup every four years. The other countries seem to content to having a decent run or just qualifying.

Africa gets 5 spots, Asia 4.5 and Concacaf 3.5. There is always an argument on which continent is the strongest and who deserves more recognition.

If we analyze each confederations performance since the modern era (1990 World Cup), we will see how each of the Confederations stacks against each other. For simplicity, let’s assume that a win (even in 1990) was worth 3 points. Counting group stage alone, here is the percentage of points won per confederation over the last six WCs.

CAF = 32%, AFC = 26%, Concacaf = 36%

It is worth noting that Concacaf hosted the WC in 1994, AFC in 2002 (two host nations) and CAF in 2010 (South Africa did not make it past the first round).

The analysis does not consider wins/loss in the knockout stages because that would negatively affect teams that qualified and didn’t make it pass the first round. It is important, however, to consider the percentage of teams that have qualified to the second round per confederation. When comparing the percentage of teams per confederation that made it past the first round, we see a slight difference:

CAF = 27%, AFC = 25%, Concacaf = 57%

Africa has produced two quarterfinalists (1990 and 2002) and Concacaf one (2002). Asia produced a semifinalist is 2002.

While more teams from Africa have made it to the later stages of the tournament, on average, the Concacaf nations have done better than their African and Asian counterparts. Mexico and the US have consistently provided good results but countries like Costa Rica have also helped the average. So which confederation is better? Math would say, that Concacaf is the leader among these three.

Gold Cup 2013 Analysis: Group C

Gold Cup 2013 Analysis: Group C

USA, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba

The Favorites: USA. The USA is the absolute favorite to win the weakest of the Gold Cup. The US will take their B Squad to this event. Landon Donovan is back in the fold for the tournament and will be ready to fight back for his spot back in the US squad.

The Contenders: Costa Rica can push the US and top the group. They have been in fine form during the WC qualifiers and are also favorites to win the Gold Cup. While several of their stars are out, expect them to go far in the tournament.

The Outsiders: Belize and Cuba will fight it out for third place. Belize has made history by just qualifying to the tournament. Their lack of experience might hurt their efforts. The defector issue might haunt Cuba. Either way, neither team will likely make it far in the tournament.

Predictions: USA will finish on top with Costa Rica in making a strong push but will fall short. Cuba and Belize are happy just to make it to the Gold Cup and will be on the first plane back after their last game.

Gold Cup 2013 Analysis: Group B

Gold Cup 2013 Analysis: Group B

Honduras, El Salvador, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago

The Favorites: Honduras

The Contenders: El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago both had disappointing early exits in the World Cup qualifiers. T&T was in shock when they bowed out to Bermuda in a series that not even the most optimists would have rooted for them. El Salvador wanted to repeat it's 2010 run but came short when facing Mexico and Costa Rica.

The Outsiders: In its 5^th Gold Cup, Haiti has been somewhat of a regular participant. With a decent showing in the Caribbean Cup, Haiti is the dark horse of group B. Don’t discount their chances of making it past the first round. If they do, they won’t make it further then their quarterfinal record in 2002 and 2009.

Predictions: Honduras will win the group but will have some issues along the way. T&T will pay back its fan for a disappointed early WC exit and will finish second due to goal difference. El Salvador will book the third place ticket and make it to the next round. Haiti will continue the Caribbean tradition of first round exits.

Gold Cup 2013 Analysis: Group A

Gold Cup 2013 Analysis: Group A

Mexico, Canada, Martinique, Panama

The Favorites: Mexico is a perennial favorite to win the Gold Cup. Even though they have been in poor form in the qualifiers and in the Confederations cup, they are still favorites to take the tournament. Since the tournament allows glad a ticket to fight for qualifications to the Confederations Cup, then we can expect them to take it very seriously.

The Contenders: Canada and Panama have what it takes to beat Mexico for first place. Canada is still rebuilding so their lack of experience will hurt them. Panama and its crop of growing professionals will make an impact in the tournament.

The Outsiders: Martinique is a minor force in football (they aren’t even a FIFA member). While they are competitive in the Caribbean, don’t expect them to match their quarterfinal appearance in 2002.

Predictions: Mexico will look rubbish but will nevertheless win the group, Panama will be second, Canada third and Martinique will go home pointless. Canada will do enough to secure a best third place spot and qualify to the next round.

Análisis Histórico del Ranking Fifa en Concacaf

Aunque muchos crean que el ranking de FIFA es complicado y no representa la realidad, es interesante ver como los equipos salen en el ranking.

Aunque Honduras ha tenido muchos altibajos (#20 en Septiembre 2001 y #95 Noviembre 98) el ranking pone a Honduras consistentemente en los puestos cincuenta a través de los años. No digo que los puestos cincuenta sean buenos o malos, pero esa es la realidad nacional.

July 2013	55
June 2013	52
May 2013	50
April 2013	52
March 2013	49
February 2013	51
January 2013	59
2012	58
2011	53
2010	59
2009	37
2008	40
2007	53
2006	56
2005	41
2004	59
2003	49
2002	40
2001	27
2000	46
1999	69
1998	91
1997	73
1996	45
1995	49
1994	53
1993	40
Promedio	52

Mexico y Estados Unidos tienen una clara superioridad. Ellos están, usualmente, dentro del Top 20 mundial. Costa Rica es un poco mejor que la H, pero no tanto como sus logros en las eliminatorias o Copa Centroamericanas lo harían pensar.  Con los demás países es mejor no compararse. Panamá, tuvo muchos años malos, pero ha venido creciendo dramáticamente en los últimos tiempos.

	Mejor Puesto	Peor Puesto	Puesto Promedio
México	Feb 1998 - 4	Jul 2009 - 33	14
USA	Abr 2006 - 4	Ago 2012 - 36	19
Costa Rica	Mayo 2003 - 17	Jul 1996 - 93	50
Honduras	Sep 2001 - 20	Nov 1998 - 95	52
Jamaica	Ago 1998 - 27	Oct 2008 - 116	58
Trinidad y Tobago	Jun 2001 - 25	Oct 2010 - 106	64
Guatemala	Ago 2006 - 50	Nov 1995 - 163	91
El Salvador	Abr 2012 - 49	Nov 2006 - 169	93
Panama	Abr 2013 - 38	Oct 1995 - 150	99

Aquí está el progreso de los equipos del área desde que empezó el ranking de Fifa en 1993:

Es ventajoso jugar de local?

Dicen que jugar de local es una ventaja muy grande. ¿Pero que tan grande es la ventaja? ¿Se puede asegurar una buena temporada ganando en casa?

Comparando los resultados de la Liga Nacional de Honduras esta ultima temporada, se puede ver que tan beneficioso es jugar en casa:

	PG		PP		PE	Puntos		%
Olimpia	8		0		1	25		93%
Victoria	5		0		4	19		70%
Motagua	4		0		5	17		63%
Marathón	4		2		3	15		56%
Atlético Choloma	4		1		4	16		59%
Real España	4		2		3	15		56%
Vida	4		2		3	15		56%
Platense	4		2		3	15		56%
Deportes Savio	4		3		2	14		52%
Real Sociedad	3		3		3	12		44%
							60%

Los equipos ganan, en promedio, el 60% de los puntos disputados en casa. Como pueden ver el Olimpia gano el 93% de los puntos en casa (solo perdió dos) y por lo tanto afecta el porcentaje considerablemente. El Victoria gano más de 2/3 de sus puntos de local. Si tomamos el promedio de los otros ocho equipos la ventaja de local es apenas 55%. Esto significa que estar frente a su afición solo representa una ventaja de 5% en comparación a que el partido se decida a través de una moneda.

Motagua	4	0	5	17	63%
Marathón	4	2	3	15	56%
Atlético Choloma	4	1	4	16	59%
Real España	4	2	3	15	56%
Vida	4	2	3	15	56%
Platense	4	2	3	15	56%
Deportes Savio	4	3	2	14	52%
Real Sociedad	3	3	3	12	44%
					55%

Jugar en su estadio, frente a su gente y en su ciudad, es menos importante de lo que la gente dice…